Contributed by Benham & Reeves
24/01/2020 - Benham & Reeves
With thousands around the world preparing to celebrate Chinese New Year this Saturday, welcoming in the Year of the Rat and the first in a fresh cycle of the Chinese zodiac, leading lettings and estate agent has looked at which year has been the most prosperous for the UK property market both where average house price and transactions are concerned.
Benham and Reeves analysed UK house prices over the last four Chinese zodiac cycles (12 years for each cycle) going as far back as 1972, to see historically which year in the Chinese calendar brought the most fortune for UK home sellers, as well as transactions over the last Chinese zodiac cycle to see which brings the highest volume of sales.
*A historical market look was used in order to give a more balanced mix of sold prices and transactions for each Chinese year, rather than looking at the last 12 years alone due to the sharp increase of house prices in recent times.
When it comes to house prices across the Chinese zodiac, the Year of the Pig which is thought to bring fortune, certainly has for UK homeowners, with the average sold price across 1983, 1995, 2007 and 2019 coming in at £121,953. The highest of the lot.
The Year of the Dog has also been fortunate when it comes to house price values, averaging £118,593 over 1982, 1994, 2006 and 2018, with the Year of the Rooster (£113,298), Monkey (£108,164) and Goat (£100,538) also seeing high average house prices.
Unfortunately for those in the current market, the impending Year of the Rat has seen the lowest average house price at an average of just £66,928. But in fairness, not only does this include some of the earliest house prices but it also includes the height of the most recent market crash, celebrated in the last four zodiac cycles in 1972, 1984, 1996 and 2008.
But it’s not all bad news where the property market is concerned during the Year of the Rat. The latest data on market transactions for the most recent Chinese zodiac cycle (the last 12 years), shows that total property transactions have been the highest of all during the Year of the Rat at 1,473,950.
A promising sign for the year ahead given the slower market conditions since the Brexit vote, with a notable uplift already spurred since December’s election, a trend that could continue if history is to repeat itself.
The Year of the Monkey ranks second for the most transactions, with a total of 1,324,450 over 1980, 1992, 2004 and 2016, with the Year of the Dog, Goat and Pig, again ranking high.
“Much like the Chinese zodiac, the UK property market is cyclical in nature and while we’ve seen some dramatic market realignments in years gone by, its robust nature has ensured that market health always come full circle and prices recover over time.
The more recent market slowdown spurred by Brexit uncertainty has been but a mere blip in contrast and while we’ve already seen an immediate rebound since December’s election, the data suggests that the impending Year of the Rat will bring yet more market activity.
Not only does the Year of the Rat bring with it some previously positive market trends, but the end of Brexit and a refreshed Government will help spur a higher rate of transactions and further buoyant price growth over the coming year.”
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